Printable · GCSE Foundation · ages 14-16
Sampling and inference about populations worksheet — GCSE Foundation
Fifteen questions on "sampling and inference about populations" — DfE statement S1. Print it, or print three versions so neighbours cannot copy by letter; the key gives the letter for each version.
Answer key: Sampling and inference about populations worksheet — GCSE Foundation
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- (a) Drawing 60 names at random from a list of all 1200 pupils — Method: a sample is random when every member of the population has the same chance of being chosen and nobody, including the pupils themselves, can influence who ends up in it; test each method against that. Working: drawing names from a list of all 1200 pupils gives each pupil the same chance, 60 out of 1200, whatever their year group, class or opinion, so the method is random. Answer: drawing 60 names at random from a list of all 1200 pupils. The distractors: asking the pupils who volunteer is self-selection, and the pupils with the strongest views volunteer first, so they decide the sample; asking the pupils nearest the door is convenience sampling, which reaches only those who happen to be in one place at one time; asking two Year 10 classes samples a cluster, so every pupil in the other year groups has no chance of being chosen at all.
- (d) 300 pupils — Method: an estimate for a whole population is made by finding the proportion in the sample and applying that same proportion to the population. Working: in the sample 30 of the 50 pupils prefer sport, a proportion of 30 ÷ 50 = 0.6, and applying that proportion to the school gives 0.6 × 500 = 300 pupils. Answer: 300 pupils, and it is only an estimate, because a different random sample of 50 would give a slightly different figure. The distractors: 200 pupils comes from scaling up the 20 pupils in the sample who did not prefer sport, 20 × 10, which answers the opposite question; 150 pupils comes from reading 30 out of 50 as 30% and taking 30% of 500; 60 pupils comes from working out the proportion correctly as 60% and then writing the 60 down as a number of pupils instead of applying it to the 500.
- (c) Club members probably eat differently from most people — Method: a sample is biased when the group it is drawn from differs from the population in the very thing the survey is measuring, so compare the subgroup with the population on that quantity. Working: the survey measures eating habits, and people who join a sports club take more exercise than average and are known to eat differently from the town as a whole, so their replies pull the results away from the true picture for the town however many of them are asked. Answer: club members probably eat differently from most people. The distractors: the reply about the number of members treats bias as a question of size, but a large biased sample is still biased; the reply that the members were picked at random is false, since the council picked a club rather than picking residents, and it confuses bias with non-response; the reply that everyone asked lives in the town notes something true of the members but draws the false conclusion that the sample therefore covers the town, when a sample must reflect a population and not merely be taken from inside it.
- (d) It asks two things at once and invites agreement — Method: a survey question is faulty when a reply to it cannot be read as evidence about one single thing, so check how many claims it contains and whether its wording pushes the reader one way. Working: the question joins two separate claims, that learning matters and that more homework should be set, so a reply of yes could mean either of them or both and cannot be counted as evidence about homework; the opening words “Do you agree” also invite agreement instead of leaving the reader free to say no. Answer: it asks two things at once and invites agreement. The distractors: the reply calling it too short mistakes length for clarity, when the fault is that too much has been packed in rather than too little; the reply about long words is false, since every word in the question is an everyday one and the fault lies in what is being asked rather than in the vocabulary used to ask it; the reply that the question is fine takes a yes or no answer as proof that the question works, which is exactly what a double question defeats.
- (d) Full-time workers, as most are at work at that time — Method: a sample is biased when the method of contact makes part of the population much less likely to be reached, so test each group against where its members actually are between 10 am and 2 pm on a weekday, and test each stated reason against the facts. Working: those hours are the middle of the working day, so people in full-time employment are at work and not beside a landline telephone, while people who are retired and people who are unemployed are far more likely to be at home and are reached at the usual rate; the method therefore collects far fewer replies from full-time workers than their share of the adult population the council is consulting. Answer: full-time workers, as most are at work at that time. The distractors: the reply naming retired people rests on the false claim that most retired people are at work in the daytime, when in fact a daytime call reaches them more easily than anyone; the reply naming unemployed people rests on the false claim that they are out during the day, when they too are among the easiest people to reach by a daytime call; the reply naming children rests on the false claim that children are at home at 11 am on a Tuesday, when they are at school and so are not reached by the call at all, and school-age children are in any case not the adults whose views the council is collecting.
- (d) About 510 of the 600 bulbs are likely to have flowered — Method: the proportion found in a random sample is used as an estimate of the proportion in the whole population, and the conclusion is stated as an estimate, never as a fact about every member. Working: 17 of the 20 bulbs dug up had flowered, so the sample proportion is 17 ÷ 20 = 0.85, and applying that proportion to the whole planting gives 0.85 × 600 = 510 bulbs. A different random sample of 20 would very probably give a slightly different figure, so 510 is an estimate. Answer: about 510 of the 600 bulbs are likely to have flowered. The distractors: saying exactly 510 have flowered takes an estimate from a sample of 20 as a count of all 600, which no sample can deliver; saying exactly 17 of the 600 have flowered reports the sample count as though it were the population count, leaving the other 580 bulbs out of the answer altogether; saying about 20 have flowered uses the size of the sample as the estimate, when 20 is the number of bulbs she dug up rather than a number that flowered.
- (a) 1,400 and 1,240, so combine the samples for one estimate — Method: scale each sample up to the whole stock, then use the fact that a larger sample gives a more reliable estimate than a smaller one. Working: the first sample gives 35 ÷ 50 = 0.7 and 0.7 × 2,000 = 1,400 paperbacks; the second gives 31 ÷ 50 = 0.62 and 0.62 × 2,000 = 1,240 paperbacks. Two random samples of the same size are expected to differ a little, so neither estimate is wrong. Putting the two together gives 35 + 31 = 66 paperbacks in 100 books, and 66 ÷ 100 = 0.66 with 0.66 × 2,000 = 1,320, an estimate resting on twice as many books as either volunteer checked. Answer: 1,400 and 1,240, so combine the samples for one estimate. The distractors: keeping 1,400 because it is larger picks an estimate by its size, when both samples held 50 books and neither has a stronger claim; saying a volunteer must have miscounted assumes two random samples ought to agree exactly, which is precisely what random sampling does not promise; 1,750 and 1,550 come from 35 × 50 = 1,750 and 31 × 50 = 1,550, multiplying each count by the size of the sample instead of scaling by 2,000 ÷ 50.
- (b) All 2,000 members of the sports centre. — Method: in a survey, the population is the whole group the survey is trying to find out about, and the sample is the smaller group actually asked. Working: this survey wants to know what the sports centre's members think, so the population is every one of the 2,000 members — whether or not they were personally asked. Saying the population is the 100 members who were asked names the sample, not the population; the sample is drawn FROM the population, so it is smaller than it, not the same as it. Saying the population is everybody who lives in Ipswich widens the group far beyond who the survey is actually about — plenty of Ipswich residents are not members of the sports centre at all, so they are outside this survey altogether. Saying the population is the members who say they are unhappy confuses the population with a result of the survey: whether a member turns out to be happy or unhappy is something the survey finds out, not part of the definition of who is being studied. The population is always the whole group the question is about, before any sampling or any results come in.
- (d) Testing destroys bulbs, so testing all leaves none to sell. — Method: testing every item in a population instead of a sample is a census — sensible only when testing does not use up or destroy what is being tested. Working: here, testing a bulb to find its lifespan destroys it, so testing all 50,000 bulbs would leave nothing left to sell — a sample lets the company estimate the typical lifespan without destroying its whole stock. Extra electricity used in testing is not the real reason a census is avoided here — it is the destruction of the product that matters. Saying a sample is always more accurate than a full census is the wrong way round: a census, if it could be carried out, gives the exact figure for the whole population — it is testing being destructive, not a lack of accuracy, that rules it out here. There is no law against testing every item a company makes — nothing in the question suggests that. When testing destroys the item being tested, sampling is necessary, not just convenient.
- (c) No — 8 from one class is too small to represent the school. — Method: judge reliability by asking whether the sample is both large enough, and spread across the population, relative to what it is meant to represent. Working: 8 pupils is a tiny fraction of the school's 1,000 pupils, and all 8 come from a single class rather than a range of year groups, so the sample is both too small and too narrow to represent the whole school reliably. She is not right. Saying any sample size gives an equally reliable estimate ignores that reliability generally improves with a larger, more representative sample. Saying the method is unreliable because it was not done online is not a reason connected to sample size or representativeness at all. Saying 8 is reliable because it is more than half her class compares the sample to the wrong population — the school has 1,000 pupils, not one class. Always judge a sample's size against the population it is meant to represent, not against a smaller group within it.
- (d) Only internet users reach the website; others are excluded. — Method: a sample is biased when it systematically leaves out part of the population, or systematically over-represents another part. Working: anyone without internet access, or who does not visit the council's website, has NO chance of being included — the sample is drawn only from internet-using residents, which is not the whole town. Saying too many people might respond because the survey is free confuses bias with sample size — bias is about who CAN be reached, not how many respond. Saying people might lie describes a different problem, response honesty, not who was sampled in the first place. Saying online surveys cannot be anonymous is not a reason connected to bias at all. A sample is biased when part of the population has no chance of being included, whatever the reason for that.
- (d) 648 kg — Method: to estimate a total from a sample, multiply the sample's mean by the number of items in the whole population, then check the units the question asks for. Working: 32.4 g × 20,000 = 648,000 g. Converting to kilograms, 648,000 ÷ 1,000 = 648 kg. This is only an estimate, not an exact total, because it assumes every one of the 20,000 packets has exactly the sample mean mass, when in reality individual packets vary above and below it. Giving 1.62 kg multiplies the mean by 50, the SAMPLE size, instead of by 20,000, the number of packets actually made that day — this finds the total mass of the 50 sampled packets, not the day's production. Giving 32.4 kg treats the sample mean itself, in grams, as if it already were the day's total mass in kilograms, skipping the scaling up altogether. Giving 648,000 kg correctly scales the mean up to the whole day's production but never converts the answer from grams to kilograms, leaving it 1,000 times too large. Always scale a sample's mean up by the SIZE OF THE WHOLE POPULATION, and always finish by checking the units the question asks for.
- (c) It is not representative, as she picked her own friends — Method: judge a sample by asking whether the pupils in it were chosen in a way that gives the whole school a fair chance of being heard. Working: Isla's friends are a group she formed herself, and friends tend to share tastes, so their favourite programme is likely to match hers rather than the school's, and pupils in other year groups and other friendship groups had no chance at all of being asked; the fault lies in how the pupils were selected, not in how many of them there were. Answer: it is not representative, as she picked her own friends. The distractors: the reply blaming the size claims the pupils were picked at random, which is false here, and it is the common mistake of thinking a biased sample can be cured by making it bigger; the reply calling the sample too large is false in the other direction, as a survey is never spoilt by collecting more replies; the reply that the sample is fine treats attending the school as enough, which would make any group of pupils in the building a fair sample.
- (d) 24 — Method: for a sample in proportion to the population, apply the same fraction that each group makes up of the whole population to the size of the sample. Working: women make up 300 out of the 500 members, a fraction of 300 ÷ 500 = 0.6. Applying that fraction to the sample of 40 gives 0.6 × 40 = 24 women. Splitting the sample evenly, 40 ÷ 2 = 20, ignores that the club has more women than men and treats the two groups as equal in size, which they are not. Misreading the sample size as 50 instead of 40, then applying the 3:2 ratio of women to men, 3 ÷ 5 × 50 = 30, uses the right ratio but the wrong sample total. Working out the number of MEN instead of women, 200 ÷ 500 × 40 = 16, answers a different question — how many men, not how many women, belong in the sample. Always apply each group's own share of the population to the sample size, and check which group the question is actually asking about.
- (b) 135 — Method: use the sample to find the PROPORTION of left-handed pupils, then apply that same proportion to the whole school population. Working: in the sample, 6 out of 40 pupils are left-handed, a proportion of 6 ÷ 40 = 0.15. Applying that proportion to the school's 900 pupils gives an estimate of 0.15 × 900 = 135 pupils. Giving 6 simply repeats the number of left-handed pupils IN THE SAMPLE, without scaling up to the whole school at all. Multiplying the population by the number of left-handed pupils in the sample without first dividing by the sample size, 900 × 6 = 5400, badly overestimates — that is more pupils than the whole school has. Dividing the population by the sample size but forgetting to multiply by the number of left-handed pupils found, 900 ÷ 40 = 22.5, finds the scale factor but stops one step short of using it. Always find the proportion in the sample first, then scale that same proportion up to the population.
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