Printable · GCSE Foundation · ages 14-16
Scatter graphs, correlation and lines of best fit worksheet — GCSE Foundation
Fifteen questions on "scatter graphs, correlation and lines of best fit" — DfE statement S6. Print it, or print three versions so neighbours cannot copy by letter; the key gives the letter for each version.
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Answer key: Scatter graphs, correlation and lines of best fit worksheet — GCSE Foundation
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- (c) Neither causes the other; sunshine links both. — Both ice cream sales and sunburn cases tend to rise on hot, sunny days, so the amount of sunshine is a third factor linked to both — neither variable causes the other. Saying ice cream sales cause the sunburn assumes a causal link in one direction that the correlation alone cannot establish. Saying sunburn cases cause the ice cream sales assumes the reverse causal link, which is no more justified. Saying a strong correlation always means causation is the general error this question is testing: correlation, however strong, does not by itself prove that one variable causes the other.
- (c) A line of best fit — Method: the straight line drawn on a scatter graph is named from the job it does — it is chosen so that it follows the whole set of points as closely as possible. Working: the line passes through the middle of the points, with roughly as many points above it as below it, and it need not pass through any of the plotted points at all; the name given to the straight line chosen in that way is a line of best fit. Answer: a line of best fit. The distractors: a line of symmetry comes from confusing a trend with symmetry, which is a property of a shape rather than of a set of data; a horizontal line through the mean comes from thinking the trend is shown by an average, when a horizontal line would say that the vertical quantity does not change and so show no correlation; a line joining the first and last points comes from thinking the line must join the two extreme points, which lets two points decide a trend that all of the points should share in.
- (a) Priya — A line of best fit should be drawn so that the plotted points are roughly balanced above and below it. Work out the difference between the two counts for each pupil: Amir 10 − 2 = 8; Kofi 10 − 2 = 8 (10 below and 2 above); Leah 12 − 0 = 12; Priya 6 − 6 = 0. Priya's line has the smallest difference, an exact balance of 6 above and 6 below, so her line is drawn correctly. Amir's line has 10 of the 12 points above it, so it is drawn too low. Kofi's line has 10 of the 12 points below it, so it is drawn too high. Leah's line has every single point below it, so it is not a line of best fit at all.
- (b) A person's shoe size and their favourite colour — A person's shoe size is not linked to which colour they prefer, so these two show no correlation. The other three pairs are all genuinely correlated: distance travelled and fuel used rise together, which is positive correlation; hours of revision and test score generally rise together, which is also positive correlation; and as outdoor temperature rises, fewer woolly hats are sold, which is negative correlation. Negative correlation is still a real relationship between two variables — it is not the same thing as no relationship at all, so the temperature and hats pair is not the answer to this question.
- (a) 26 — Method: a line of best fit lets one quantity be predicted from the other, so the score is substituted into the equation of the line and the resulting inequality is solved for the number of hours. Working: a score of at least 80 means 2.5x + 15 ≥ 80; taking 15 from both sides gives 2.5x ≥ 65, and dividing both sides by 2.5 gives x ≥ 26, so the least whole number of hours is 26. Checking, 2.5 × 26 + 15 = 80, which does reach the target. Answer: 26 hours — and this is only an estimate, because a line of best fit predicts a trend rather than an individual result, and a prediction made outside the range of hours the pupils actually revised for would be an extrapolation and less reliable still. The distractors: 27 comes from reaching 26 and then rounding up again, although 26 hours already gives a score of exactly 80; 32 comes from 80 ÷ 2.5, which ignores the 15 in the equation of the line; 38 comes from (80 + 15) ÷ 2.5, that is from adding the 15 instead of subtracting it when rearranging.
- (a) Minutes a candle has burned and length remaining — As a candle burns for longer, less of it remains, so these two variables move in opposite directions as one increases — that is negative correlation. A pupil's shoe size generally increases as they get older, so age and shoe size show positive correlation, not negative, since both rise together. A football team's shirt colour is not a numerical quantity linked to how many matches it wins, so shirt colour and number of wins show no correlation at all. The number of letters in a pupil's name has no real connection to their ability in maths, so that pair also shows no correlation.
- (b) Positive correlation — Method: the type of correlation is named from the direction the points take as the scatter graph is read from left to right. Working: the points rise from left to right, so as the arm span read on the horizontal axis increases, the height read on the vertical axis increases as well; two quantities that increase together show positive correlation. Answer: positive correlation. The distractors: negative correlation comes from naming the direction the wrong way round, since a negative correlation needs the points to fall as the graph is read from left to right; no correlation comes from treating points that are spread out rather than sitting exactly on a line as though they showed no relationship; direct proportion comes from confusing a rising trend with proportion, which would additionally need the line through the points to pass through the origin and would mean doubling one quantity doubles the other.
- (a) No correlation — Shoe size has no real relationship with spelling ability, and the points here are scattered with no rising or falling trend, so this is no correlation. A positive correlation would show the points rising together, and a negative correlation would show them falling as one increases; neither pattern is present here. Strong correlation is not correct either, since strength only applies once a positive or negative trend exists, and there isn't one.
- (a) x = 0 gives y = −20: a negative number sold — The y-intercept is the value the line predicts when x = 0: y = 3 × 0 − 20 = −20. A kiosk cannot sell a negative number of ice creams, so this is not a sensible estimate. The 3 in the equation is the gradient, not the intercept, so an option claiming x = 0 gives y = 3 has swapped the two numbers around — substituting x = 0 makes the 3x term equal 0, leaving −20, not 3. The danger of extrapolating to very high temperatures is a real issue with this line, but it is a different issue from the y-intercept, so it does not answer this question. And whether x = 0 could occur on a trading day is beside the point: the model still makes that prediction, and it is the prediction itself, −20, that is impossible.
- (a) 23 minutes — Method: the equation of a line of best fit converts a value of x into a predicted value of y, so substitute the known number of pages for x and evaluate. Working: x is the number of pages, so put x = 10 into y = 2x + 3. Multiplication is carried out before addition, so 2 × 10 + 3 = 23. Answer: 23 minutes, and it is a prediction of the trend rather than a promise about any one chapter. The distractors: 20 minutes comes from working out 2 × 10 and stopping there, leaving out the 3 that the line adds; 26 minutes comes from reading the equation as y = 2(x + 3), adding first and then doubling, so 2 × 13 = 26; 13 minutes comes from adding 10 and 3 and never using the gradient at all, which treats the 2 as though it were not there.
- (b) Treat them as outliers and check them before deciding — Method: a point lying a long way from the pattern the rest of the data make is called an outlier, and an outlier is investigated before anything is done with it, because it may be an error in the data or it may be a genuine but unusual case. Working: 48 of the 50 points lie close to the rising line of best fit, so the trend is set by those 48; the two remaining points do not follow it, so they are identified as outliers and checked — a mistake in measuring or recording would be corrected, while a genuine reading would be kept and reported. Answer: treat them as outliers and check them before deciding what to do with them. The distractors: deleting them at once assumes that every point far from the line must be an error, which throws away real data; moving the line so that it passes through them assumes a line of best fit must touch particular points, when it is drawn to follow all 50; taking them as proof that there is no correlation lets two points overturn the pattern that the other 48 agree on.
- (a) The relationship between two variables — Method: what a diagram shows is decided by what has to be known before a single mark can be plotted on it. Working: every point on a scatter graph is plotted from a pair of measurements taken from the same person or object, one read on the horizontal axis and one on the vertical axis; having two measurements for each point is what makes it possible to look for a pattern between them, and the pattern between two variables is what the graph displays. Answer: a scatter graph shows the relationship between two variables. The distractors: the frequency of each single value is what a bar chart or a vertical line chart shows, and it needs only one list of values; how a total is shared between categories is what a pie chart shows; how one quantity changes over time is what a time series line graph shows, in which one of the two axes is always time.
- (c) No, 90 cm is far outside the heights on the graph — Method: a line of best fit describes the trend only across the stretch of data it was drawn through; predicting beyond that stretch is extrapolation, and nothing in the data supports it. Working: the heights used to draw this line run from 150 cm to 180 cm, all of them Year 10 pupils, while 90 cm is 60 cm below the shortest of them and belongs to a two-year-old child, whose build follows no trend the graph has measured. Substituting anyway gives 0.9 × 90 − 85 = −4, a mass of −4 kg, which cannot exist. Answer: no, because 90 cm is far outside the heights on the graph. The distractors: saying a line of best fit cannot be used to predict at all throws away its main purpose, since a prediction made between the plotted values is perfectly sound; saying the line passes through all 20 points misdescribes a line of best fit, which is drawn to follow the trend of the points and will normally pass through few of them; saying the equation works for any value put into it treats an equation fitted to Year 10 heights as a law of nature, and the mass of −4 kg shows what that assumption produces.
- (a) Negative correlation — As the age of the car increases, the points fall towards a lower value, so the value decreases as the age increases. This falling pattern is a negative correlation. A positive correlation would show the points rising together instead. No correlation would apply only if the points showed no pattern at all, and correlation is not the same as causation — strong causation is not a type of correlation.
- (a) A straight line sloping down from left to right — Method: a line of best fit is a straight line drawn to follow the trend of the points, so its slope is decided by the direction of the relationship between the two quantities. Working: as the price rises, the satisfaction score falls, so the points start high on the left of the graph and finish low on the right; the straight line that follows them therefore slopes downwards as the graph is read from left to right, which is the line of a negative correlation. Answer: a straight line sloping down from left to right. The distractors: a line sloping up comes from reading a falling relationship as a rising one; a horizontal line comes from expecting no correlation, since a horizontal line says the satisfaction score does not change as the price changes; a curve passing through every point comes from thinking a line of best fit has to touch all of the plotted points, when it is a single straight line drawn through the middle of them.
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