Printable · GCSE Higher · ages 14-16
Conditional probability worksheet — GCSE Higher
Fifteen questions on "conditional probability" — DfE statement P9. Print it, or print three versions so neighbours cannot copy by letter; the key gives the letter for each version.
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Answer key: Conditional probability worksheet — GCSE Higher
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- (b) 2/11 — Method: restrict the 36 equally likely outcomes to those where at least one die shows a 5, then find what fraction of THOSE give a total of 8. Working: outcomes with at least one 5: (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (1, 5), (2, 5), (3, 5), (4, 5), (6, 5) — 11 outcomes. Among these, the total is 8 for (5, 3) and (3, 5) — 2 outcomes. P(total 8 | at least one 5) = 2/11. Answer: 2/11. Watch out: 5/36 is P(total 8) over the full 36 outcomes — it ignores that you already know one die shows a 5. Treating the condition as 'the first die shows a 5' instead of 'at least one die shows a 5' restricts you to only 6 outcomes and misses the (3, 5) case, giving 1/6. And counting only (5, 3) but not its reverse (3, 5) inside the correct 11-outcome list gives 1/11 instead of 2/11.
- (b) 12/19 — Method: turn the percentages into expected frequencies out of 1000, total the faulty pens, then divide supplier Y's faulty pens by that total, because the pen picked is known to be faulty. Working: supplier X provided 700 pens and 2% of them are faulty, which is 14 pens. Supplier Y provided 300 pens and 8% of them are faulty, which is 24 pens. Altogether 38 pens are faulty, so the probability is 24/38, and dividing the numerator and the denominator by 2 gives 12/19. Answer: the probability is 12/19. The distractors: 3/10 is supplier Y's share of the stock, the answer before the faulty information is used at all; 3/125 is 24/1000, the probability that a pen is from supplier Y and faulty, which stops at the joint probability and never divides by the probability of a fault; 4/5 is 8 divided by 2 + 8, comparing the two fault rates as though the suppliers provided equal numbers of pens, so the 70 to 30 split is thrown away.
- (c) 0.04 — Method: 'made by machine B and faulty' is the second branch of a tree followed after the first, so multiply the probability of machine B by the probability of a fault given machine B. Working: machine B makes 0.4 of the bolts, and 0.1 of those bolts are faulty, so the probability is 0.4 × 0.1 = 0.04. Answer: the probability is 0.04. The distractors: 0.5 comes from adding 0.4 and 0.1 instead of multiplying, treating two stages of one journey as two separate outcomes; 0.1 gives the fault rate for machine B on its own, as though every bolt in the factory came from machine B, so the 40% share is never used; 0.07 is 0.6 × 0.05 added to 0.4 × 0.1, the probability that a bolt is faulty whichever machine made it, which answers a question about all the production rather than about machine B.
- (a) 7/16 — Method: the adult picked is known to have a driving licence, so the sample space is everyone with a licence; divide the number of men with a licence by that total. Working: 45 women and 35 men have a licence, so 80 adults have one. The men with a licence give 35/80, and dividing the numerator and the denominator by 5 gives 7/16. Answer: the probability is 7/16. The distractors: 7/10 is 35/50, the probability that an adult has a licence given that he is a man, which is the condition and the event the wrong way round; 7/24 is 35/120, dividing by all 120 adults surveyed instead of by the 80 who have a licence; 5/12 is 50/120, the probability that an adult picked from the whole survey is a man, which uses none of the licence information the question supplies.
- (b) 1/3 — Method: the first sweet has already been taken and it was red, so work out the second probability from what is actually left in the bag. Working: one red sweet has gone, so 3 red sweets remain out of 9 sweets altogether, giving 3/9. Dividing the numerator and the denominator by 3 gives 1/3. Answer: the probability is 1/3. The distractors: 2/5 is 4/10, the probability for the first draw used again, which is only right if the first sweet is put back; 3/10 takes one off the red count but leaves the total at 10, updating half of the fraction; 4/9 takes one off the total but leaves the red count at 4, updating the other half of the fraction.
- (c) 1/2 — Method: restrict to the students who did NOT bring a packed lunch, then find what fraction of that group are girls. Girls without lunch = 42 − 24 = 18. Boys = 70 − 42 = 28, so boys without lunch = 28 − 10 = 18. Total without lunch = 18 + 18 = 36. Working: P(girl | no lunch) = 18 ÷ 36 = 1/2. Answer: 1/2. Watch out: dividing 18 by 42 (the total number of girls) instead of by 36 finds P(no lunch | girl), the reverse conditional. Dividing by 70 (the whole trip) ignores that you already know the student did not bring a lunch. And using the 'brought a lunch' numbers (24 out of 34) answers the question for the wrong group entirely — you were asked about the students who did NOT bring one.
- (b) 0.355 — Method: use the law of total probability across the two Monday branches: P(rain Tue) = P(rain Mon) × P(rain Tue | rain Mon) + P(no rain Mon) × P(rain Tue | no rain Mon). Working: P(no rain Mon) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7. P(rain Tue) = (0.3 × 0.6) + (0.7 × 0.25) = 0.18 + 0.175 = 0.355. Answer: 0.355. Watch out: using only the rain-Monday branch (0.3 × 0.6) or only the no-rain-Monday branch (0.7 × 0.25) accounts for just one of the two ways Tuesday can turn out rainy — both branches must be added. And swapping which weekday-probability multiplies which branch (0.7 with the rain branch, 0.3 with the no-rain branch) uses the right numbers on the wrong branches.
- (c) 1/56 — Method: for draws without replacement, multiply a chain of three fractions where both the numerator (reds remaining) and the denominator (counters remaining) fall by one after each draw. Working: P(all three red) = 3/8 × 2/7 × 1/6 = 6/336 = 1/56. Answer: 1/56. Watch out: using 3/8 for all three draws (27/512) treats the counters as if they were replaced each time. Reducing only the numerator each draw (3/8 × 2/8 × 1/8) forgets that the total number of counters left in the bag also falls. And reducing only the denominator while keeping the numerator at 3 each time (3/8 × 3/7 × 3/6) forgets that a red counter has actually left the bag.
- (c) 3/20 — Method: the second fraction is quoted for the perennials only, so it is a conditional probability and the two fractions multiply. Working: the probability that a plant is a perennial is 3/5, and given that it is a perennial the probability that it is in flower is 1/4. Multiplying gives 3 × 1 over 5 × 4, which is 3/20. Answer: the probability is 3/20. The distractors: 17/20 comes from adding the fractions, 12/20 plus 5/20, instead of multiplying, which would be right only for two outcomes that cannot both happen; 4/9 comes from adding the numerators and the denominators separately, the classic 3 + 1 over 5 + 4; 1/4 quotes the flowering fraction on its own, as though every plant in the garden centre were a perennial, so the 3/5 is never used.
- (d) 5/11 — Method: the pen already taken was black, so update the contents of the box before working out the second probability. Working: the box held 12 pens and one black pen has gone, so 11 pens remain. None of the blue pens has been taken, so all 5 are still there, and the probability is 5/11, which will not cancel. Answer: the probability is 5/11. The distractors: 5/12 uses the box as it was at the start, which is only correct if the first pen is put back; 4/11 takes one off the blue count as well as the total, as though the pen removed had been blue; 6/11 gives the probability that the second pen is black, carrying on with the colour of the first pen instead of the colour asked for.
- (b) 1/4 — Method: the person picked is known to be aged 30 or over, so the sample space is those 140 people; divide the number of them who had been to the cinema by 140. Working: 35 of the 140 people aged 30 or over had been to the cinema, giving 35/140. Dividing the numerator and the denominator by 35 gives 1/4. Answer: the probability is 1/4. The distractors: 7/20 is 35/100, taking the count from the older group but the total from the under 30s, which is reading across the wrong row; 7/48 is 35/240, dividing by everyone surveyed instead of by the age group named; 3/4 is 105/140, the probability that someone aged 30 or over had NOT been to the cinema, the opposite event inside the correct group.
- (d) 12/17 — Method: the person picked is known to have passed, so the sample space is everyone who passed; divide the course takers who passed by that total. Working: 120 course takers and 50 others passed, so 170 people passed. The course takers who passed give 120/170, and dividing the numerator and the denominator by 10 gives 12/17. Answer: the probability is 12/17. The distractors: 4/5 is 120/150, the probability that someone passed given that they took the course, which reverses the condition and the event; 12/25 is 120/250, dividing by everyone who sat the test rather than by the 170 who passed; 17/25 is 170/250, the probability that a person picked from everyone sitting the test passed, which answers a different question altogether.
- (c) 5/18 — Method: knowing the total is even cuts the 36 equally likely outcomes down to the even ones, so count those first and then count how many of them give 8. Working: the even totals occur as 2 once, 4 three times, 6 five times, 8 five times, 10 three times and 12 once, which is 18 outcomes. The total is 8 for 2 and 6, 3 and 5, 4 and 4, 5 and 3, and 6 and 2, which is 5 outcomes. The probability is 5/18, which will not cancel. Answer: the probability is 5/18. The distractors: 5/36 keeps the right count of ways to make 8 but divides by all 36 outcomes, ignoring the fact that the odd totals have already been ruled out; 1/6 treats the six even totals 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 as equally likely and picks one of them, which they are not; 1/11 treats the eleven possible totals from 2 to 12 as equally likely and uses neither the counting nor the condition.
- (b) 60 — Method: independence means the proportion of part timers among the cyclists is the same as the proportion among all the employees, so find that proportion and apply it to the cyclists. Working: 150 of the 400 employees work part time, which is a proportion of 0.375. Applying it to the 160 cyclists gives 0.375 × 160 = 60 employees. Answer: you would expect 60 employees. The distractors: 310 adds 150 and 160, treating the group who do both as everyone who does one thing or the other; 10 subtracts 150 from 160, reading 'both' as the difference between the two counts; 75 halves the 150 part timers, assuming that independence means they split evenly between cyclists and non cyclists, which would need exactly half the workforce to cycle.
- (d) 36/91 — Method: P(both red | same colour) = P(both red) ÷ P(same colour), where P(same colour) = P(both red) + P(both green). Working: P(both red) = 9/20 × 8/19 = 72/380 = 18/95. P(both green) = 11/20 × 10/19 = 110/380 = 11/38. P(same colour) = 18/95 + 11/38 = 36/190 + 55/190 = 91/190. P(both red | same colour) = (36/190) ÷ (91/190) = 36/91. Answer: 36/91. Watch out: stopping at 18/95 gives P(both red) itself, without dividing by the probability that the colours matched at all. Working out 55/91 finds the same-colour probability for green instead of red — check which colour's count you are putting on top. And 9/20 is just the chance the first ball drawn is red, which ignores the second draw and the without-replacement condition completely.
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