Conditional probability worksheet — GCSE Higher

1.A school buys pens from two suppliers and has 1000 pens in stock. Supplier X provided 70% of the pens and supplier Y provided the other 30%. 2% of supplier X's pens are faulty and 8% of supplier Y's pens are faulty. A pen picked at random from the stock is found to be faulty. Work out the probability that it came from supplier Y. Give your answer as a fraction.

2.At a garden centre, 3/5 of the plants for sale are perennials. 1/4 of the perennials are in flower. Work out the probability that a plant picked at random from the garden centre is a perennial and is in flower.

3.A box holds 5 blue pens and 7 black pens. Two pens are taken at random, one at a time, and are not put back. The first pen taken is black. Work out the probability that the second pen taken is blue.

4.In a survey of 200 households, 120 have a garden and 80 own a dog. 54 of the households have a garden and own a dog. Work out the probability that a household owns a dog given that it has a garden, and compare it with the probability that a household picked from the whole survey owns a dog.

5.In a certain town, P(rain on Monday) = 0.3. If it rains on Monday, the probability that it also rains on Tuesday is 0.6. If it does not rain on Monday, the probability that it rains on Tuesday is 0.25. Work out the probability that it rains on Tuesday.

6.A box contains 9 red balls and 11 green balls. Two balls are taken out at random, one after the other, without being replaced. Given that both balls taken out are the same colour, work out the probability that both balls are red.

7.Of the 70 students on the Year 10 geography trip, 42 are girls and the rest are boys. 24 of the girls and 10 of the boys brought a packed lunch. A student who did not bring a packed lunch is chosen at random. Work out the probability that this student is a girl.

8.A bag contains 3 red counters and 5 blue counters. Three counters are taken out at random, one after another, without being replaced. Work out the probability that all three counters taken out are red.

9.At a sports centre, 45% of the members are aged under 18. 60% of the members aged under 18 swim each week. 20% of the members aged 18 or over swim each week. Work out the percentage of all the members who swim each week.

10.240 people were asked whether they had been to the cinema in the last month. 100 of the people are under 30 years old and 140 are aged 30 or over. 65 of the under 30s and 35 of those aged 30 or over had been to the cinema. One of the people aged 30 or over is picked at random. Work out the probability that this person had been to the cinema.

11.A ferry company finds that on 20% of days the sea is rough. If the sea is rough, the probability that a crossing is delayed is 0.75. If the sea is calm, the probability that a crossing is delayed is 0.1. Given that a crossing was delayed, work out the probability that the sea was rough that day.

12.Two ordinary fair dice are rolled and the two scores are added together. Given that the total is an even number, work out the probability that the total is 8.

13.A company has 400 employees. 150 of them work part time and 160 of them cycle to work. Working part time and cycling to work are independent. Work out how many of the employees you would expect both to work part time and to cycle to work.

14.Two fair six-sided dice are rolled and the two scores are added together. Given that at least one of the dice shows a 5, work out the probability that the total is 8.

15.In a year group of 60 pupils, 25 play football, 18 play tennis and 8 play both football and tennis. A pupil who plays football or tennis or both is picked at random. Work out the probability that this pupil plays both sports.