Printable · GCSE Higher · ages 14-16
Probability worksheet — GCSE Higher
Fifteen questions across the probability statements at Higher tier. Choose the non-calculator filter to rehearse Paper 1, which counts for a third of the marks.
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Answer key: Probability worksheet — GCSE Higher
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- (b) 11/36 — Method: 'at least one' is the opposite of 'none at all', so work out the probability of no 5 on either roll and take it away from 1. Working: a roll that is not a 5 has probability 5/6, and the rolls are independent, so no 5 at all has probability 5/6 × 5/6 = 25/36. Taking this from 36/36 leaves 11/36. Answer: the probability is 11/36. The distractors: 25/36 is the probability of no 5 at all, written down without the final subtraction; 12/36 comes from counting the 6 pairs with a 5 on the first roll and the 6 pairs with a 5 on the second and adding them, which counts the pair (5, 5) twice; 30/36 comes from working out 1 − 1/6 as though only one roll were made.
- (a) 3/8 — There are 4 × 6 = 24 equally likely outcomes. The outcomes with no 3 at all have Spinner E showing 1, 2 or 4 and Spinner F showing 1, 2, 4, 5 or 6, giving 3 × 5 = 15 outcomes. So the outcomes with at least one 3 are 24 − 15 = 9, and the probability is 9/24 = 3/8. Choosing 5/12 comes from adding the two individual probabilities of a 3, 1/4 + 1/6, which counts the outcome where both spinners show 3 twice over. Choosing 1/4 comes from only counting the case where Spinner E shows 3, and forgetting the outcomes where Spinner F shows 3 instead. Choosing 5/8 comes from working out the probability of getting no 3 at all, 15/24 = 5/8, and giving that as the final answer instead of subtracting it from 1.
- (b) 3/5 — The question asks about the girls only, so use the girls' total of 70 as the denominator: 42 out of 70 girls walk, giving 42/70 = 3/5. Choosing 21/65 comes from using the whole survey of 130 pupils as the denominator instead of just the 70 girls, 42/130 = 21/65. Choosing 33/70 comes from using the boys' walking count, 33, over the girls' total of 70, mixing up the two rows of the table. Choosing 2/5 comes from using the number of girls who CYCLE, 70 − 42 = 28, instead of the number who walk, giving 28/70 = 2/5.
- (c) 9/16 — Method: two steps. Total the patients who had a flu jab, since the patient picked is known to be one of them, then divide the over 65s who had a jab by that total. Working: 90 patients over 65 and 70 patients aged 65 or under had a jab, so 160 patients had one. The over 65s give 90/160, and dividing the numerator and the denominator by 10 gives 9/16. Answer: the probability is 9/16. The distractors: 7/16 is 70/160, the probability that the patient picked is aged 65 or under, which is the other part of the same restricted group; 3/4 is 90/120, the probability that a patient had a jab given that they are over 65, which is the condition and the event the wrong way round and needs the 120 patients over 65; 9/40 is 90/400, dividing by every patient on the list instead of by the 160 who had a jab.
- (d) 4 — Method: list the elements of each set in full, then find which elements appear in both lists — that is A ∩ B. Working: factors of 12 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12}. Factors of 18 = {1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 18}. The elements in both lists are 1, 2, 3 and 6, so A ∩ B = {1, 2, 3, 6} and n(A ∩ B) = 4. Answer: 4. Watch out: writing down 6 gives n(A), the size of the factors-of-12 list on its own, not the size of the overlap. Writing down 8 comes from counting every element that appears in EITHER list, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12 and 18 — that is the union, a different set from the intersection. And writing down 3 misses that 1 is a factor of both 12 and 18, and so belongs in A ∩ B alongside 2, 3 and 6.
- (d) 124/125 — The probability that a seed germinates is 1 − 1/5 = 4/5, so the probability that all three seeds fail to germinate is 1/5 × 1/5 × 1/5 = 1/125. The probability that at least one germinates is 1 − 1/125 = 124/125. Choosing 4/5 comes from giving the probability that a single seed germinates, forgetting to combine all three seeds. Choosing 64/125 comes from working out the probability that ALL three seeds germinate, 4/5 × 4/5 × 4/5 = 64/125, instead of at least one. Choosing 12/125 comes from working out the probability that EXACTLY one seed germinates, 3 × 4/5 × 1/5 × 1/5 = 12/125, instead of at least one.
- (a) 0.16 — The probability that Kofi fails a single attempt is 1 − 0.6 = 0.4. Since the attempts are independent, the probability he fails both is 0.4 × 0.4 = 0.16. Choosing 0.36 comes from squaring the probability of PASSING instead, 0.6 × 0.6 = 0.36, which is the probability of passing both attempts, not failing both. Choosing 0.4 comes from giving the probability of failing just one attempt, forgetting to combine two attempts. Choosing 0.24 comes from multiplying the fail probability by the pass probability, 0.4 × 0.6 = 0.24, mixing up passing and failing between the two attempts.
- (d) 1/20 — Method: add the counts on the faulty end branches, divide by the total number of items in the experiment, then cancel. Working: the faulty items number 15 + 5 = 20, and 400 items were checked, so the probability is 20/400. Dividing the top and the bottom by 20 gives 1/20. Answer: the probability is 1/20. The distractors: 3/50 is 15/250 and comes from dividing machine A's faults by machine A's output, which is that machine's own fault rate rather than the probability for the whole batch; 1/30 is 5/150 and does the same on machine B's branch; 19/20 is 380/400 and gives the probability that the item picked is not faulty.
- (d) 1/12 — Method: list the full possibility space of sandwich-and-drink pairs, then divide the one matching pair by the size of the whole space. Working: there are 3 × 4 = 12 equally likely sandwich-and-drink pairs, and exactly one of them is egg and water. Answer: 1/12. Watch out: writing down 1/7 comes from adding the two counts, 3 + 4 = 7, instead of multiplying them to build the possibility space. Writing down 1/3 uses only the chance of choosing egg out of 3 sandwiches and ignores the drink altogether. And writing down 1/4 uses only the chance of choosing water out of 4 drinks and ignores the sandwich altogether.
- (d) 36/91 — Method: P(both red | same colour) = P(both red) ÷ P(same colour), where P(same colour) = P(both red) + P(both green). Working: P(both red) = 9/20 × 8/19 = 72/380 = 18/95. P(both green) = 11/20 × 10/19 = 110/380 = 11/38. P(same colour) = 18/95 + 11/38 = 36/190 + 55/190 = 91/190. P(both red | same colour) = (36/190) ÷ (91/190) = 36/91. Answer: 36/91. Watch out: stopping at 18/95 gives P(both red) itself, without dividing by the probability that the colours matched at all. Working out 55/91 finds the same-colour probability for green instead of red — check which colour's count you are putting on top. And 9/20 is just the chance the first ball drawn is red, which ignores the second draw and the without-replacement condition completely.
- (b) 1/8 — Shrubs, bedding plants and trees are the three branches at the first stage of the tree, so they must total 240: tree sales = 240 − 96 − 114 = 30. So P(tree) = 30/240 = 1/8. Using the shrub count instead, 96/240 = 2/5, is the probability of a shrub sale, not a tree sale. Using the bedding-plant count instead, 114/240 = 19/40, is the probability of a bedding-plant sale. Subtracting the bedding count from the shrub count (114 − 96 = 18) instead of subtracting both from 240 gives 18/240 = 3/40, which is not the number of tree sales at all.
- (c) 7/8 — Method: 'at least one head' is the opposite of 'no heads at all', so work out the probability of three tails and take it away from 1. Working: a flip that is not a head has probability 1/2, and the flips are independent, so three tails in a row has probability 1/2 × 1/2 × 1/2 = 1/8. Taking this from 8/8 leaves 7/8. Answer: the probability is 7/8. The distractors: 1/8 is the probability of three tails, written down without the final subtraction; 3/8 is the probability of exactly one head, which comes from reading 'at least one' as 'exactly one'; 1/2 comes from giving the probability of a head on a single flip and ignoring that three flips are made.
- (b) 38% — Method: the two swimming percentages are quoted inside different age groups, so weight each one by the size of its group and add the two results. Working: the under 18s are 45% of the members and 60% of them swim, giving 0.45 × 60 = 27% of all the members. The members aged 18 or over are 55% of the members and 20% of them swim, giving 0.55 × 20 = 11% of all the members. Adding these gives 38%. Answer: 38% of the members swim each week. The distractors: 80% comes from adding 60% and 20% straight off, treating two rates quoted inside different groups as though they could be added; 40% is the mean of 60% and 20%, which would be right only if the two age groups were the same size, and they are not; 42% comes from pairing each swimming rate with the wrong age group, working out 0.45 × 20 added to 0.55 × 60.
- (d) 5/11 — Method: the pen already taken was black, so update the contents of the box before working out the second probability. Working: the box held 12 pens and one black pen has gone, so 11 pens remain. None of the blue pens has been taken, so all 5 are still there, and the probability is 5/11, which will not cancel. Answer: the probability is 5/11. The distractors: 5/12 uses the box as it was at the start, which is only correct if the first pen is put back; 4/11 takes one off the blue count as well as the total, as though the pen removed had been blue; 6/11 gives the probability that the second pen is black, carrying on with the colour of the first pen instead of the colour asked for.
- (d) 21 — Method: 'yoga only' means yoga but not pilates, so subtract the number who do both from the total who do yoga. Working: 32 − 11 = 21. Answer: 21. Watch out: writing down 32, the total who do yoga, answers 'how many do yoga' rather than 'how many do yoga only' — it still includes the 11 who also do pilates. Adding the overlap instead of subtracting it, 32 + 11 = 43, moves in the wrong direction entirely. And writing down 11 gives the number who do both activities, which is the opposite of yoga only.
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