GCSE Higher · grades 4–9 · 7.5% of marks
GCSE Higher — Probability
This is the probability practice for GCSE Higher, the content area that carries 7.5% of the paper. 9 statements make up probability here. Each has its own page with the specification wording, the common mistakes, and questions. Expect frequency of outcomes, tables and frequency trees, expected outcomes and fairness, relative frequency and the probability scale, probabilities of exhaustive events sum to one, empirical samples and sample size and sets, Venn diagrams and tree diagrams. The Higher-only part of this area is conditional probability. The assessment objectives split 40% AO1 against 60% AO2 and AO3 combined, which is why so many questions ask you to explain or to justify rather than simply to calculate. Most of this area is natural Paper 1 material, so practise it without a calculator before you practise it with one.
- P1 — Frequency of outcomes, tables and frequency trees
- P2 — Expected outcomes and fairness
- P3 — Relative frequency and the probability scale
- P4 — Probabilities of exhaustive events sum to one
- P5 — Empirical samples and sample size
- P6 — Sets, Venn diagrams and tree diagrams
- P7 — Possibility spaces for single and combined events
- P8 — Independent and dependent combined events
- P9 — Conditional probability (Higher only)
Practise
The 9 DfE statements in probability at Higher
Related
Questions people ask
How much of the GCSE Higher paper is probability?
7.5% of the total marks, and the three papers each carry an equal share of the qualification, so it is spread across all of them rather than concentrated in one.
How many topics are there in probability at GCSE Higher?
9 DfE content statements, coded P1 to P9 within this area. Every question in the bank is tagged to one of them.
Which probability topics are Higher only?
Conditional probability (P9).
Can I use a calculator for probability questions?
Paper 1 is non-calculator; Papers 2 and 3 allow one. Of the 9 statements in this area, 5 are naturally non-calculator and 0 naturally calculator, with the rest workable either way — so practise both.
What kind of marks does probability carry?
The GCSE Higher split is 40% AO1 (use and apply standard techniques), 30% AO2 (reason, interpret and communicate) and 30% AO3 (solve problems in and out of context). Questions in this area are set across all three.
Are these past paper questions?
No. Every question at /gcse-higher is original, written to the DfE content statements and checked before it is published. We do not host past papers or mark schemes.