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DfE statement P2 · Probability

Expected outcomes and fairness

Both tiersEither paper

Expected outcomes and fairness is content statement P2 of the DfE GCSE mathematics subject content, in the probability area. It is on both tiers, and it appears on both the calculator and the non-calculator papers. Below is what the specification actually requires, the 3 mistakes that cost marks on this topic most often, and practice questions written to the statement — original questions, not past papers.

What the specification says

The DfE subject content for GCSE mathematics states, verbatim: "Apply ideas of randomness, fairness and equally likely events to calculate expected outcomes of multiple future experiments." (statement P2). Every awarding organisation — Pearson Edexcel, AQA and OCR — must cover it, so the wording is the same whichever specification your school follows.

— Department for Education, Mathematics: GCSE subject content and assessment objectives, statement P2

Tier

Both tiers. This statement is Foundation content, which means Higher students are examined on it too — Higher is Foundation plus more, never instead of it.

Calculator

This turns up on both the non-calculator and the calculator papers, so practise it both ways — the written method for Paper 1 and the efficient calculator route for Papers 2 and 3.

Common mistakes

  • Giving the expected number of successes as a probability between 0 and 1 rather than as a count.
  • Treating a rounded expected value as a guarantee — 'expect 12' does not mean exactly 12 will happen.
  • Multiplying by the number of outcomes instead of the number of trials.

Sample questions (10 of 30)

P2 · Expected outcomes and fairnessQuestion 1 of 10 · 0 correct
Practice mode· no pressure · hints available

Probability

P2

Intermediate

A grower knows that the probability that one of their seeds germinates is 0.6. The grower wants to expect 300 of the seeds to germinate. Work out how many seeds the grower should plant.

💡 Hints:
Foundation worksheetHigher worksheetFoundation probability practiceHigher probability practice

Nearby statements

P1Frequency of outcomes, tables and frequency treesP3Relative frequency and the probability scaleP4Probabilities of exhaustive events sum to one

Questions people ask

Is expected outcomes and fairness on Foundation or Higher?

Both. It is Foundation content, so it can be asked on either tier.

Can I use a calculator for expected outcomes and fairness?

It depends on the paper. Paper 1 is non-calculator; Papers 2 and 3 allow one, and this topic is asked on both kinds.

What is the single most common mistake here?

Giving the expected number of successes as a probability between 0 and 1 rather than as a count.

Are these past paper questions?

No. Every question is original, written to this DfE content statement and checked before publication. We do not host past papers or mark schemes.

Back to Probability at Foundation or at Higher.

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