Printable · GCSE Higher · ages 14-16
Probability worksheet — GCSE Higher
Fifteen questions across the probability statements at Higher tier. Choose the non-calculator filter to rehearse Paper 1, which counts for a third of the marks.
Answer key: Probability worksheet — GCSE Higher
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- (a) 1276 — Method: an unbiased relative frequency tends towards the theoretical probability as the number of trials increases, so use the record resting on the most trials, then multiply by the number of new trials. Working: the three records rest on 50, 200 and 1000 drops, so the most reliable is the one after 1000 drops, namely 0.638, and the run is indeed settling as the trials increase. The expected number of point up landings in 2000 further drops is 2000 × 0.638 = 1276. Answer: about 1276 times. The distractors: 1440 uses the earliest record, which rests on only 50 drops, giving 2000 × 0.720 = 1440; 1330 uses the middle record, treating 200 drops as a safe compromise when 1000 drops is better still, giving 2000 × 0.665 = 1330; 1348 comes from averaging the three records, since 0.720 + 0.665 + 0.638 = 2.023 and 2.023 ÷ 3 = 0.674, then 2000 × 0.674 = 1348, which gives the 50 drop record the same weight as the 1000 drop record.
- (d) 1/3 — List the outcomes for the two spinners systematically in a 3 × 3 grid: 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, where the first number is the score on spinner A and the second is the score on spinner B — 9 equally likely outcomes in total. The pairs where the two numbers are the same are 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3, so there are 3 favourable outcomes. P(same number) = 3/9 = 1/3. 2/3 comes from working out the probability that the two numbers are different and then forgetting to take the complement the right way round, so the probability of "different" is given instead of the probability of "same". 1/2 comes from listing only the 6 unordered pairs 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3 instead of all 9 ordered outcomes in the grid, then taking 3 out of that 6. 1/9 comes from spotting only one of the three matching pairs, such as 1-1, and missing 2-2 and 3-3.
- (a) 5/12 — Method: a win, a draw and a loss are the only outcomes and no two can happen together, so the three probabilities form an exhaustive set of mutually exclusive events and add to 1; add the two given probabilities, then subtract from 1. Working: 1/4 + 1/3 over the common denominator 12 is 3/12 + 4/12 = 7/12, and 1 − 7/12 = 12/12 − 7/12. Answer: 5/12. The distractors: 7/12 comes from stopping at the probability of a win or a draw and never subtracting from 1; 1/12 comes from subtracting the two given probabilities from each other, 1/3 − 1/4, instead of adding them and taking the total from 1; 5/7 comes from adding 1/4 and 1/3 by adding the numerators and the denominators to get 2/7 and then subtracting that from 1.
- (d) 3/5 — The first tile drawn is a consonant with probability 4/5, since 4 of the 5 letters in MATHS are consonants. Since it is not replaced, 3 consonants remain out of the 4 tiles left, so the second tile is a consonant with probability 3/4. Multiplying gives 4/5 × 3/4 = 3/5. Choosing 4/5 comes from only using the probability for the first draw and forgetting the second draw changes once a tile is removed. Choosing 3/4 comes from only using the probability for the second draw on its own. Choosing 16/25 comes from treating the two draws as independent, using 4/5 × 4/5 = 16/25, which would only be correct if the first tile were replaced before the second draw.
- (c) Red — Theoretical probability is 1/3 ≈ 0.333 for each colour. Red's relative frequency is 38/90 ≈ 0.422, above 1/3, so red is over-represented. Blue's relative frequency is 26/90 ≈ 0.289, below 1/3, so blue is under-represented, not over. Green's relative frequency is also 26/90 ≈ 0.289, below 1/3 for the same reason. Since red's relative frequency clearly exceeds 1/3, it is not true that none of the colours are over-represented.
- (b) 26 — Method: n(G ∪ H) = n(G) + n(H) − n(G ∩ H), taking off the overlap once so the pupils who study both subjects are not counted twice. Working: 19 + 15 − 8 = 26. Answer: 26. Watch out: adding 19 and 15 without taking off the overlap gives 34, which counts the 8 pupils who study both subjects twice. Taking the 8 off both totals before adding, 19 − 8 + 15 − 8 = 18, counts only the pupils who study exactly one of the two subjects and leaves out the 8 who study both. And writing down 11, which is 19 − 8, gives the number who study geography only, not the number who study geography or history or both.
- (b) 38% — Method: the two swimming percentages are quoted inside different age groups, so weight each one by the size of its group and add the two results. Working: the under 18s are 45% of the members and 60% of them swim, giving 0.45 × 60 = 27% of all the members. The members aged 18 or over are 55% of the members and 20% of them swim, giving 0.55 × 20 = 11% of all the members. Adding these gives 38%. Answer: 38% of the members swim each week. The distractors: 80% comes from adding 60% and 20% straight off, treating two rates quoted inside different groups as though they could be added; 40% is the mean of 60% and 20%, which would be right only if the two age groups were the same size, and they are not; 42% comes from pairing each swimming rate with the wrong age group, working out 0.45 × 20 added to 0.55 × 60.
- (b) 40 — n(P ∪ Q) = n(P) + n(Q) − n(P ∩ Q) = 34 + 27 − 11 = 50. The complement is everyone outside both sets: n((P ∪ Q)′) = 90 − 50 = 40. Adding P and Q without subtracting the overlap gives 34 + 27 = 61, so 90 − 61 = 29 double-subtracts the 11 who are in both. Reporting n(P ∪ Q) itself, 50, forgets to take the complement at all. Subtracting only n(P) from the universal set, 90 − 34 = 56, ignores set Q altogether.
- (b) 1/4 — There are 6 × 2 = 12 equally likely outcomes. The even-numbered cards are 2, 4 and 6, so there are 3 × 1 = 3 outcomes with an even card and tails, giving a probability of 3/12 = 1/4. Choosing 1/2 comes from working out only the probability of drawing an even card, 3/6, and forgetting to combine it with the coin landing on tails. Choosing 1/12 comes from treating only one specific outcome, such as card 6 with tails, as the only one that counts, instead of all three even cards paired with tails. Choosing 1/8 comes from doubling the coin stage when counting the total, using 6 × 2 × 2 = 24 outcomes instead of 6 × 2 = 12, and giving 3/24 = 1/8.
- (b) 15/32 — Method: there are two ways to get one of each colour, red then blue and blue then red. Work out the probability of each path by multiplying, then add the two paths. Working: red then blue is 5/8 × 3/8 = 15/64, and blue then red is 3/8 × 5/8 = 15/64. Adding the two paths gives 30/64. Answer: the probability is 15/32. The distractors: 15/64 comes from working out red then blue only and forgetting that blue then red also gives one of each; 15/28 comes from doubling correctly but reducing the total to 7 for the second spin, which is what happens to a bag when an item is kept out, not to a spinner; 39/64 comes from working from the opposite event and subtracting only the two-red case, 1 − 25/64, leaving the two-blue case inside the answer.
- (c) 1/36 — Method: the two dice do not affect each other, so the probability that both results happen is the product of the two separate probabilities. Working: a 1 on the red dice has probability 1/6 and a 2 on the blue dice has probability 1/6. Multiplying gives 1 × 1 = 1 on the top and 6 × 6 = 36 on the bottom. Answer: the probability is 1/36. The distractors: 1/18 comes from allowing either order, counting a 2 on the red dice with a 1 on the blue dice as well, although the stem names which dice shows which score; 1/3 comes from adding 1/6 and 1/6 instead of multiplying; 1/6 comes from giving the probability for one dice only and treating the other as making no difference.
- (c) 24 — Silver, bronze and copper cover every counter, so their probabilities sum to 1: P(copper) = 1 − 1/2 − 1/8 = 3/8. Number of copper counters = 3/8 × 64 = 24. Multiplying the silver probability by 64 gives 32, the number of silver counters, not copper. Multiplying the bronze probability by 64 gives 8, the number of bronze counters. Adding the silver and bronze probabilities (1/2 + 1/8 = 5/8) and multiplying by 64 gives 40, the combined number of silver and bronze counters, not the copper count.
- (b) 57/100 — Pooling both trials: total heads = 24 + 33 = 57, total flips = 40 + 60 = 100, so the combined relative frequency is 57/100, which is already in its simplest form since 57 and 100 share no common factor. Averaging the two separate relative frequencies instead, (24/40 + 33/60) ÷ 2 = (0.6 + 0.55) ÷ 2 = 0.575 = 23/40, treats the two trials as equally weighted even though Ben made more flips, which is not correct. Using only Leah's data gives 24/40 = 3/5. Using only Ben's data gives 33/60 = 11/20.
- (d) 21 — Method: 'yoga only' means yoga but not pilates, so subtract the number who do both from the total who do yoga. Working: 32 − 11 = 21. Answer: 21. Watch out: writing down 32, the total who do yoga, answers 'how many do yoga' rather than 'how many do yoga only' — it still includes the 11 who also do pilates. Adding the overlap instead of subtracting it, 32 + 11 = 43, moves in the wrong direction entirely. And writing down 11 gives the number who do both activities, which is the opposite of yoga only.
- (c) 7/19 — Method: 'at least two black' covers two cases — all three black, and exactly two black. Work out the probability of each along a tree, add them, then use P(all three black | at least two black) = P(all three black) ÷ P(at least two black). Working: P(all three black) = 9/13 × 8/12 × 7/11 = 504/1716 = 42/143. For exactly two black, one order is black, black, white = 9/13 × 8/12 × 4/11 = 288/1716; the white sock could be drawn first, second or third, so there are 3 such orders, giving 3 × 288/1716 = 864/1716 = 72/143. P(at least two black) = 42/143 + 72/143 = 114/143. P(all three black | at least two black) = (42/143) ÷ (114/143) = 42/114 = 7/19. Answer: 7/19. Watch out: stopping at 42/143 gives the unconditioned probability that all three are black — it ignores that you already know at least two of them are. Dividing by the 'exactly two black' probability on its own gives 7/12, and forgets that the all-black outcomes are themselves part of the 'at least two black' group, so they must be inside the denominator, not left out of it. And 7/11 answers a different, easier question — the probability the THIRD sock is black given the FIRST TWO specifically are black — not 'at least two of the three, in any order, are black'.
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