Probability worksheet — GCSE Higher

1.A test for a medical condition is given to 1000 people. 50 of the people have the condition and 950 do not. The test is positive for 45 of the 50 people who have the condition, and it is also positive for 95 of the 950 people who do not have the condition. One of the people whose test is positive is picked at random. Work out the probability that this person has the condition.

2.Of the 70 students on the Year 10 geography trip, 42 are girls and the rest are boys. 24 of the girls and 10 of the boys brought a packed lunch. A student who did not bring a packed lunch is chosen at random. Work out the probability that this student is a girl.

3.A red fair dice and a blue fair dice are rolled together. Every outcome is listed as an ordered pair, red score then blue score. Work out the probability that the red score is less than the blue score.

4.150 pupils are asked about swimming and cycling, and the results are recorded on a frequency tree. The first pair of branches splits the 150 pupils into 90 who swim and 60 who do not swim. Of the 90 who swim, 54 also cycle. Of the 60 who do not swim, 18 cycle. Work out P(S ∩ C), the probability that a pupil, chosen at random, swims and cycles. Give your answer as a fraction in its simplest form.

5.A fair coin is flipped again and again. After the first 10 flips there have been 7 heads. After 1000 flips there have been 528 heads. Which statement best describes what these results show?

6.For two events A and B, P(A) = 0.6 and P(A and B) = 0.15. Work out P(B | A).

7.Oliver flips three fair coins at the same time. Work out the probability that exactly two of the three coins land on heads.

8.A basketball player has a free-throw success probability of 0.75. She wants to expect to score 60 successful free throws. Work out how many free throws she needs to attempt.

9.A student is estimating the probability that a spinner lands on red. In her first 85 spins it landed on red 34 times. She then spins it 165 more times, and in those it lands on red 58 times. Work out the best estimate of the probability of red from all 250 spins. Give your answer as a decimal, correct to 3 decimal places.

10.Two fair six-sided dice are rolled and the two scores are added together. Given that at least one of the dice shows a 5, work out the probability that the total is 8.

11.A ferry company finds that on 20% of days the sea is rough. If the sea is rough, the probability that a crossing is delayed is 0.75. If the sea is calm, the probability that a crossing is delayed is 0.1. Given that a crossing was delayed, work out the probability that the sea was rough that day.

12.In a board game Mia moves forward by the total of two ordinary fair dice. Work out the probability that her total is 7. Give your answer as a fraction in its simplest form.

13.A box holds 5 blue pens and 7 black pens. Two pens are taken at random, one at a time, and are not put back. The first pen taken is black. Work out the probability that the second pen taken is blue.

14.Two ordinary fair dice are rolled, one after the other. Work out the probability that the first dice shows a 6 and the second dice shows an even number.

15.In a class experiment a fair six-sided dice is rolled 60 times and lands on a six 14 times. The whole school then rolls the same fair dice 3000 times. Work out the best estimate of the number of sixes the school should expect.